Time Series Analysis of Seasonal Temperature ...

Time Series Analysis of Seasonal Temperature Variability in Kashmir Valley- India

Author Name : Himayoon Hassan

ABSTRACT

Present study is aimed at determining the trend for temperature on seasonal basis using the data period from 1977 to 2018. Mann-Kendall test was applied to identify the existing trend direction and Sen’s slope estimator test was used to detect the magnitude of change over time.Overall there has been an increasing trend in temperature at all the metrological stations of Kashmir valley. Analysis indicate significant positive trend for both annual Mean Maximum and annual Mean Minimum temperatures. On a seasonal scale spring season is showing the highest rate of increase in mean maximum temperature at 0.041ºC/year (p < 0.1) followed by winter season with rate of increase being 0.040ºC/year (p < 0.01). In terms of mean minimum temperature statistically significant trend was observed in spring (p < 0.01), autumn (p < 0.1) and winter season (p <0.1) with rate of recession being 0.022ºC/year, 0.017ºC/year and 0.011ºC/year respectively.